It’s a downward spiral that sucks up all the investment in the room because it has been profitable in the past, so people assume it will continue to be profitable, and because the dynamics of the supply chain allow for maximum rent seeking in a way that alternatives do not.

PV is just cheaper at this point, but, a steady state low cost power supply is much less profitable than a gas power plant that can be turned on and off to ensure that the price is always kept as high as possible.

Investment decisions in our economy are not made to maximize efficiency or output, but to maximize rent seeking and margins.

This sort of dynamic where production growth in a gas/oil field slows or stops as the first wells age out and new wells are just replacing the old wells, can be compounded by modern abilities to detect areas with rich deposits. It is obvious to drill the most productive and easiest spots first, but that means as time goes on, you’re slowly left drilling on less and less productive/long-lived areas.

So even if drilling continues at a steady rate, and for every well that drys up, a new one is built, there is also a steady decline in the quality of new wells.