For years, the mining lobby has argued that the green transition is impossible without extracting cobalt, nickel, and manganese from the seafloor. This study finds that:

  • Ambitious recycling could reduce the total demand for the nine key transition minerals by up to 45% by 2050. Recycling can reduce primary nickel demand by up to 48%

  • A combination of factors including shifting from private car ownership to more public transport, smaller, more efficient EVs, and different battery choices, can reduce cumulative mineral demand by 23%

  • The rise of advanced battery technology such as lithium iron phosphate batteries (which do not contain nickel or cobalt) can significantly reduce the demand for certain minerals

A concise briefing document is available here